Resilient Urban Solutions
Our mission is to enhance climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban areas
Impact Assessment of Climate Change
Climate change will affect urban life, influencing human comfort, buildings, and urban infrastructure such as energy and transport systems. Assessing and quantifying the probable impacts of climate change is challenging due to the complex interactions in urban areas and the considerable uncertainties in future climate projections. We have developed several cutting-edge methods to perform impact assessment of climate change using the most recent and advanced climate projections. We have assessed impacts of climate change on the energy and moisture performance of buildings; urban energy systems with higher shares of renewable generation; human comfort inside buildings and in urban areas (indoor and urban comfort); extreme climate in urban areas, such as heat- and cold-waves.
Counting for multiple factors
When performing impact assessment of climate change in urban areas, it is important to count for important components that affect the conditions on long term. For example, to have a realistic picture about the energy conditions in a city after 2050, more than considering multiple climate scenarios, we should take into account retrofitted and new buildings, urbanization and population growth or decline, technological enhancements, cleaner energy production, and variations in user behaviour.
Energy performance of buildings
Climate change will affect the energy performance of buildings in different ways. For example, on a log run the heating demand can decrease while cooling demand increase. However, since climate change induces stronger and more frequent extreme events, such heat- and cold-waves, there might be larger peaks demands in the future. We have a long history in investigating the energy performance of buildings for future climate.
Hygrothermal performance of buildings
The moisture performance of buildings will also change by climate variations and extreme conditions. For example, there might be higher risks for mould growth in the future. We have developed our methods to investigate and quantify the probable moisture risks in buildings, considering different components such as walls and attics.
urban energy systems
Design and operation of urban energy systems are highly affected by climate conditions and what happens on the demand side. The influence of climate conditions on energy systems can become greater by higher integration of renewable generation and climate change. We have developed novel methods to assess impacts of climate change on urban energy systems.
Relevant publications
Here are some works that we have published about impact assessment of climate change:
- Perera, A.T.D., Nik, V.M., Chen, D., Scartezzini, J.-L., Hong, T., “Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems”, Nature Energy 2020;5:150–9. doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0.
- Nik, V. M., “Application of typical and extreme weather data sets in the hygrothermal simulation of building components for future climate – A case study for a wooden frame wall”, Energy and Buildings, vol. 154, pp. 30–45, Nov. 2017, doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.08.042.
- Nik, V. M., “Making energy simulation easier for future climate – Synthesizing typical and extreme weather data sets out of regional climate models (RCMs)”, Applied Energy, vol. 177, pp. 204–226, Sep. 2016, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.05.107.
- Nik, V. M. et al. “Effective and robust energy retrofitting measures for future climatic conditions – Reduced heating demand of Swedish households”, Energy and Buildings, vol. 121, pp. 176–187, Jun. 2016, doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2016.03.044.
- Nik, V. M. et al. “Future moisture loads for building facades in Sweden: climate change and wind-driven rain,” Building and Environment, vol. 93, part 2, pp. 362–375, Nov. 2015, doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2015.07.012.
- Nik, V. M. et al. “Assessing the Efficiency and Robustness of the Retrofitted Building Envelope Against Climate change”, Energy Procedia, vol. 78, pp. 955–960, Nov. 2015, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2015.11.031.
- Nik, V. M., Sasic, A. “Impact Study of the Climate Change on the Energy Performance of the Building Stock in Stockholm Considering Four Climate Uncertainties” Building and Environment, vol. 60, 291-304, Feb. 2013, doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2012.11.005.
- Nik, V. M. et al. 2012. “Assessment of Hygrothermal Performance and Mould Growth Risk in Ventilated Attics in Respect to Possible Climate Changes in Sweden.” Building and Environment, vol. 55, 96–109, Sep 2012, doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2012.01.024.
- Nik, V. M., “Hygrothermal Simulations of Buildings Concerning Uncertainties of the Future Climate”, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden, 2012 (PhD thesis).
- Nik, V. M., “Climate Simulation of an Attic Using Future Weather Data Sets – Statistical Methods for Data Processing and Analysis”, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden, 2010 (Licentiate thesis).